This was a Podcast I gave to Jonathan Norman, available here: https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-tttuy-16404d8 Here’s what I said! Podcast Hi, I’m James Lea. Thank you Jonathan for the chance to be on the podcast! I’ve been asked to talk about the Value of Prediction. This is a subject close to my heart, as it’s been central to my work over the last 16 years. I will tell you why in a minute.

The March of AI Generative AI (artificial intelligence) is the latest step in the evolution of complex, high performing algorithms that can generate content. While generative techniques have been around for a long time (AI is not a new thing), with the advent of large and powerful artificial neural nets (ANNs) they have exploded into the public imagination with chat bots such as ChatGPT, closely followed by open source models such as Facebook’s Llama.

Why should you embrace uncertainty? Answer: to see the world differently. We can comprehend and turn uncertainty to our advantage. Here’s how. In this short article I want to share some thoughts on how we can benefit from this way of thinking, along with a chart that you may find really useful. Delivery Professionals If you’re reading this, you’re likely to be a delivery professional. Someone who cares about outcomes. Regardless of your chosen methodology - be it agile, kanban, iterative, hybrid etc.

Another webinar delivered! On 12 Mar 2024 James addressed 330 delegates (a personal record) in an APM webinar ‘Real World Project Management Series - Transforming Project Delivery with Data Science’. Some feedback: “I can truly relate with James - he is a a fantastic example at showcasing and applying the true potential of data driven systematic workflows.” and: “Enjoyed the content immensely” Here are some highlights! Thinking like a Scientist Generating reliable (testable) predictions on project evolution is hard because:

On 16 March 2023 James presented an APM real world webinar - Designing and Delivering with Data – transforming project delivery with data science. James asked the question: how can we deliver our complex projects and programmes with certainty and confidence? Project data science signposts the way. We live in a universe of data; like the James Web Space Telescope we are making new discoveries every day. But how can we best observe the project cosmos, and how can we make use of our discoveries to predict the future?

Project Science Ltd presented a challenge at Project:Hack 18. The challenge, tackled by a team of data scientists and analysts, is how can we auto-generate work breakdown structures? For more information visit, Project:Hack18 APM. Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we can explore how to leverage the power of data in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

In this event, organised by the APM governance SIG, James will join a panel of subject matter experts to assess the problems with projects ‘in the large’. We will explore how we can transform project success through data-enabled investment decisions. The event forms part of the series “Effective governance, unlocking data and project success”. We will assesses the problem at large with project success, the concept of reference class forecasting to inform investment decisions and the principle that ‘all projects are data designed and data enabled’.

On 7 December 2022 I presented my talk “How do you know your project is on track? The role of data” to the APM Midlands branch in Worcester. Building data-designed and enabled projects: Thanks to Temi and the APM Midlands branch for organising a very interesting and enjoyable event. Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we can explore how to leverage the power of data in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

A question we get asked quite often is: how do we estimate agile projects? And our reaction is nearly always: what’s different about agile? We are of course, being tongue-in-cheek! Agile is different, but not so different that all the techniques in waterfall, iterative, hybrid project management should be thrown out the window. You can use comparative and parametric estimating, benchmarking, and so on. In fact, you should use these, because without an idea of how much work you’re taking on, how can you be confident you have about the right size team for the job?

We presented three challenges at the Project:Hack 17. Optimising Delivery through Collaboration Insights Understanding how teams cooperate and collaborate helps us optimise performance. Using data science, we can determine how effectively teams are collaborating through a SharePoint site. This challenge paves the way! WBS Automation - Planning Crossrail 2 Crossrail was a very ambitious programme. What can we learn from it when planning ‘Crossrail 2’? WBS Automation - Understanding WBS diversity Work Breakdown Structures tell us a lot about a project, even when viewed in isolation without the underlying activities.

Project Science is leading the Visions workstream within the Project Data Analytics Task Force. We’ve set ourselves the challenge of a ten-fold improvement in project delivery outcomes by 2025. Just one in two hundred projects achieves its original time, cost and quality goals. Imagine the savings if we can lift that to one in twenty. Workstreams To work toward this goal, we’ve developed a set of workstreams, including: WBS Automation NextGen PMO Human Performance Benefits Management These workstreams have devised some challenges for the upcoming Project:Hack 17 - see you there!

EVA26, organised by Steve Wake, took place on Wednesday 16th and Thursday 17th March 2022 at Armourers’ Hall, Moorgate, London. Our founder, James Lea, presented “The psychology of estimating and planning - working with your team.” For a video interview with James and a summary of the key points, visit https://youtu.be/qmE-huseZR4?t=7318 Emotions, Plans and Predictions Last time you gave an estimate, were you: Under pressure? Distracted? Worried your numbers will be used against you?

We are awash in a sea of data - how can we make sense of it all, and turn it to our advantage? In particular, how can we exploit data to deliver complex change? Machine learning / AI / algorithmic bias - these are all 21st century terms. But what do they mean, and how should we adapt and evolve? How can modern business exploit the exponential growth in data science to deliver projects and business change more effectively?

In Project Science we use a wide range of tools to deliver compelling insights into data. We often get asked what tools we use, so here’s a list: Programming We use a wide range of programming languages. After you’ve been programming for over 20 years, you see more commonalities than differences (and develop a keen sense for what’s practical). Here are some of the languages we use: C is a venerable language, having been developed in the early 1970s.

Today is a busy day – as is every day in my life as a consulting project and programme manager. I start the day responding to emails and checking the diary, attending video conference calls, checking progress of actions and agreeing new actions. I then get together with my PMO to review progress updates from our team and suppliers. We update the schedule, and extend our plans into the next phase of work.

On 9th Dec 2020 I will be presenting a webinar, organised by the APM’s Thames Valley branch titled “How do you know your project is on track? The role of data.” To find out more, visit the event page where you can sign up. Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data and AI in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

I will be presenting at the APM‘s Think Differently 2020 online conference 21 – 25 September 2020. This is a five day virtual event organised by the Association for Project Management, featuring the APM Women in Project Management Virtual Conference. On Tuesday 22 September at 11am I’ll be presenting on “How a diverse project team can bring extra benefits (and how to get them)”. This event is open to all (APM members can go free) – sign up on the APM’s website.

Brexit was a highly divisive topic from 2016 through to 2020; this article takes a ’lessons learned’ view to see how strategic change can be managed better “next time”. The Beginning Once in a while a monumental change happens in our society, that we, as project delivery professionals, owe it to our community to study and learn from. Brexit is one such change. What insights and lessons can we derive as project managers from Brexit, or in particular, the process through which the UK intends to leave the European Union?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is pervasive: decisions made by AI influence our choices and our lives every day, often without us realising. These decisions, driven by algorithms, are changing society. What does this mean for us as project managers, and how should we adapt? What is AI? What do we mean by AI? First, we must distinguish between classic or pure AI (‘thinking computers’) and applied AI (the application of specific algorithms to develop systems that exhibit machine intelligence).

Physics is all about change. The universe, and everything within it, is evolving and in a state of constant flux. Projects are no different. Change is both what a project is, and a way of life. Modern physics is remarkable. We have learnt to see inside the atom, and the constituent parts of atoms. The latest generation of space telescopes are staring further back in time, to an epoch not long after our universe came into being.

On Tuesday 3 September 2019 I ran an interactive workshop with the Bristol branch of the Project Data Analytics Meetup. We reviewed the art of change in the context of Advanced Project Data Analytics, and developed persuasive arguments for making the case for change. Here are the slides (to follow). Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

The lights rise, and the ballerina curtsies. The audience applaud, delighted with the superb performance they have just seen. The dancers enter the stage, and take their bows, happy to share in the enjoyment they have brought. At every performance the troupe have delivered consistently, exceeding the expectations of all who have seen their skill, movement and grace. Their secret to success? Years of training, testing and refining their skills, underpinned by a clear vision for each production, well planned and carefully choreographed.

Anti-fragility is a brilliant concept, put forward by Taleb in his wonderful books: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan and Anti-fragility. These concepts can be applied to make projects stronger, and thrive on challenge. As project professionals, our job is to deliver change. We steer our projects through complex and ever-changing environments, handling adversity to deliver on time, cost and scope. Threats arrive from all directions, both internal and external, and the longer the project runs, the more volatility it will be exposed to.

On Thursday 16 May 2019 I presented my talk “How do you know your project is on track? The role of data” to the APM Midlands branch in Worcester, at Sixways Stadium. A great audience, with lots of interaction, generating ideas on how we can exploit data to deliver our projects predictably and with confidence. My thanks to the APM Midlands branch for organising the event. Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call.

On 11 April 2019 I presented my talk “Placing Teams and Data Together at the Heart of Delivery” to the EVA 24 conference. The Armourers’ Hall is the home of The Armourers & Brasiers’ Company, founded in 1322 as the guild overseeing the production of armour. More information at the Armourers’ Hall website. Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

On Tuesday 12 March 2019 I presented my interactive workshop “How do you know your project is on track? The role of data” to the APM Wessex branch at Bournemouth University, Talbot Campus. Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

On Thursday 22 November 2018 I presented my talk ‘How do you know your project is on track? The role of data’ to the London branch of the APM. We shared ideas on how we can exploit data to deliver with confidence. Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

I’m delighted to have presented at the London Project Data and Analytics Meetup on 22 October 2018. This event was organised by Martin Paver of Projecting Success. In this interactive workshop I demonstrated using real-life case studies how a creative yet rigorous approach to data can be used to restore control and build delivery confidence, while also lifting team performance. Along the way I explored how good project design provides the foundations for applied AI techniques (including predictive analytics and machine learning).

This is one of my favourite charts. Project waste and backflow It shows a project as a classic network of activities, annotated with green and red lines. The green lines represent forward flow – the natural progression of tasks we desire in a smoothly flowing project. By contrast, the red lines represent back flow – the rework required to handle defects, errors, ambiguities and poor project design. The red lines are a major source of project volatility.

Milestone Trend Charts are a powerful tool for understanding and communicating what is to be delivered, when it will be delivered, and how stable the forecast delivery dates are. Use these templates to help control your project and communicate delivery dates: Milestone Trend Chart template ods Milestone Trend Chart template xlsx Remember: horizontal lines are stable forecasts; lines sloping up represents slips, and lines sloping down represent dates coming in earlier.

On the 19th September 2018 I presented to the British Computer Society (BCS) project management specialist interest group (PROMS-G) in London. My talk is titled “How do you know your project is on track? The role of data”. You can sign up here: https://www.bcs.org/content/ConWebDoc/59737.

On the 24th May 2018 I presented my talk “How do you know your project is on track? The role of data” to the Association of Project Management (APM) South West branch. For a writeup see APM – How Do You Know Your Project is on Track? – The Role of Data, 24 May 2018 Next steps To find out more please contact Project Science.

Organisation Design Projects, programmes and portfolios do not sit in isolation. They are delivered as part of a wider parent organisation. The question then is - have we optimised our organisation to provide the maximum chances of success? Do we know what our operating model should look like? Target Operating Model Design A target operating model (TOM) tells us how the organisation should function. Designing a target operating model is complex, because the starting point - how the organisation currently functions - is rarely understood.

The March of AI Generative AI (artificial intelligence) is the latest step in the evolution of complex, high performing algorithms that can generate content. While generative techniques have been around for a long time (AI is not a new thing), with the advent of large and powerful artificial neural nets (ANNs) they have exploded into the public imagination with chat bots such as ChatGPT, closely followed by open source models such as Facebook’s Llama.

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In this training package you will learn how to transform your project and programme delivery using advanced project data science. Modules There are five modules: Overview - The Strategic Vision (1 hour) The Art of Counting (1 hour) Connecting People and Data - Learning from AI (1 hour) The Psychology of Estimating (1 hour) Building project delivery prediction models (1 hour) Custom Training We also provide custom training, tailored to your organisation.

In our competitive knowledge-based economy, understanding and insight are vital. Project Science can develop and deliver training packages into your organisation and clients. We have base training packages we can tailor for your organisation, and can develop custom training packages upon request. Some feedback we’ve received for our training: “I thought this event was absolutely outstanding. It was the most thought-provoking APM event I have ever been to, and completely relevant to the times we live in.

What is Reference Class Forecasting? Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) is a conceptually simple, yet powerful technique for predicting project durations and costs. It was developed by leading economists including Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and its development led to a Nobel Prize in Economics. This technique responds to some simple observations. We tend to predict outcomes based on: what we know (which is often limited, despite our experiences), and what we hope (thereby exhibiting aspiration or optimism bias).

Projects, programmes and portfolios can be tough environments to apply new techniques and ways of thinking. We can help, by acting as a critical friend that coaches for performance. Often the issues are around presentation, perspectives and mindsets: we can help you navigate these circumstances in your projects. Find out more To find out more about how we can help with coaching, please get in touch.

Businesses take risk; volatility is everywhere. But how do you know whether the risks you are taking on are sensible and commensurate with experience? The answer lies in digital benchmarking. Digital benchmarking is a process where we can help you assess the performance of your digital and complex technology projects. We have access to a wide range of data on historical performance in software-intense projects, and can take you through a comparison process to assess how your organisation is performing, and to review the statistics so that you can gauge risks (and opportunities) using a data-driven approach.

Process mining (also known as Automated Business Process Discovery) is an exciting technique and will play an increasingly important role in our data-driven future. Why is this? To deliver complex change we must first understand our organisations and behaviours. Without this insight we cannot know our starting point. Where better to start than by understanding the ‘as is’ state of our organisations? We can help you understand the value of business process mining tools to measure the “ground truth” behaviours in your business.

Data is at the heart of our work. Working with a wide range of structured and unstructured data sources, we transform data into insight that generates business value. Effective data provides insights into portfolio performance. At a programme and project level, it helps us forecast outcomes, vital to the effective mobilisation of capital. With the right data, risks can be managed and opportunities seized. Surprises are avoided, and long-range predictions become possible.

The burgeoning world of data analytics promises the earth. But how do you go about translating the promises into the hard reality, and thence into benefits? The answer lies in a disciplined approach, through an effective data strategy. We have practical experience designing measurement campaigns, plans and standards that underpin effective data analytics. We help you execute those strategies and roll them out across your organisation. Data quality and data standards are core parts of a measurement framework.

It is a fact of life that projects can go off-track, causing reputational damage and impacting the well-being of the project team. Using our disciplined execution techniques, we evaluate the circumstances that gave rise to failed or underperforming projects. We can advise on how to restore control and can help you recover the project. Find out more Please get in touch to find out more about our track record recovering and restoring projects to health.

Healthy portfolios are vital to the wellbeing of people and organisations. We can help you optimise your portfolio using statistical techniques to understand variance and lift performance within projects and across your portfolio. Portfolios provide a superb opportunity to learn from experience. We can help you tap into this opportunity, and generate financial returns. Find out more Get in touch to explore how we can help you with you build data-driven portfolios.

Project Science has many years’ experience delivering complex project and programmes in a variety of sectors. We provide a project delivery capability that integrates with your system engineering and business change teams to deliver complex projects and programmes. We select the optimum delivery methodology based on your requirements, and draw upon: Iterative Waterfall Agile Hybrid We adapt the delivery methodology depending on lifecycle stage, level of risk, and are highly experienced helping your teams move between the models.

We have extensive experience of project controls, including: Product breakdown structure (PBS) development Work breakdown structure development Risk and opportunity management Schedule development Schedule management and tracking Baseline control Change control Reporting We integrate risk and opportunity management tightly into our project controls frameworks. We use a range of tools including: Atlassian Jira Microsoft Project Primavera P6 We have software development expertise, and where industry tools are not available, can develop bespoke tools.

A PMO (project management office) is vital to the success of many projects. A PMO provides the heart of a project, supplying consistency, support and know-how to enable delivery. We can help you build a highly-capable PMO for your project and organisation. Find out more To find out more about how we can help you build your high-performing PMO please get in touch.

Imagine a world in which we knew how to automatically generate our schedules? Project Science is researching techniques to achieve this, and the results are promising - as they say, watch this space. Get in touch To find out more about how we can help you automate your WBS, please get in touch.

Cash is king, and sales drives an organisation. But how can we win most efficiently? In this piece I set out a data science and analytics challenge using UK public sector contract data. Sales Winning work is central to business. If we don’t win, we have no revenue, and – ultimately - no pay cheque at the end of the month. Selling projects is as important as delivering projects. One cannot exist without the other.

Introduction Digital construction is a mirror counterpart to physical construction – the construction of software. Software drives the modern world. Developing, testing and delivering software on time, to the desired quality, is a major challenge to organisations worldwide, and to projects in particular. When developing the business case, tendering for, and mobilising projects we must seek answers to many questions, such as: What proportion of the developed system will be software?

Challenge All projects - what to focus on, when will it be done? What we did Define milestones For each milestone, build consensus on scope and date Iteratively improve predictions using data-driven models Outcome Benefits Clarity Delivery on time Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data and AI in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

Your customers demand high quality product; this is a short case study on how we use data to inform document reviews. Challenge High volume of documents to review Volatile and uncertain: some reviews quick, others slow What we did Collect data Analyse the correlations; generate insights Improve processes; set clearer expectations to team Outcome Benefits Better quality work into review Greater certainty On-time delivery Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call.

Challenge Diagnosing and fixing software faults on critical path Work volatile and difficult to plan What we did Get the data Analyse - generate insights on rework and waste Gain team buy-in: workshop to find solutions Enter improvement loop; exploit quick wins Outcome Benefits Predictable delivery Project back on track Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data and AI in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

Challenge All projects - what to focus on, when will it be done? What we did Define milestones For each milestone, build consensus on scope and date Iteratively improve predictions using data-driven models Outcome Benefits Clarity Delivery on time Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data and AI in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.

Challenge Novel and complex hardware and software product Priority areas unclear What we did Get the data from project file Visualise the information Identify relationships Review with the team Build consensus on status and priority areas Outcome Benefits Product flow Alignment with strategic goals Confidence Find out more Get in touch with us to book a call. Working together, we will explore how to leverage the power of data and AI in your organisation and generate competitive advantage.