What is Reference Class Forecasting? Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) is a conceptually simple, yet powerful technique for predicting project durations and costs. It was developed by leading economists including Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and its development led to a Nobel Prize in Economics. This technique responds to some simple observations. We tend to predict outcomes based on: what we know (which is often limited, despite our experiences), and what we hope (thereby exhibiting aspiration or optimism bias).

Projects, programmes and portfolios can be tough environments to apply new techniques and ways of thinking. We can help, by acting as a critical friend that coaches for performance. Often the issues are around presentation, perspectives and mindsets: we can help you navigate these circumstances in your projects.

Businesses take risk; volatility is everywhere. But how do you know whether the risks you are taking on are sensible and commensurate with experience? The answer lies in digital benchmarking. Digital benchmarking is a process where we can help you assess the performance of your digital and complex technology projects. We have access to a wide range of data on historical performance in software-intense projects, and can take you through a comparison process to assess how your organisation is performing, and to review the statistics so that you can gauge risks (and opportunities) using a data-driven approach.

Process mining (also known as Automated Business Process Discovery) is an exciting technique and will play an increasingly important role in our data-driven future. Why is this? To deliver complex change we must first understand our organisations and behaviours. Without this insight we cannot know our starting point. Where better to start than by understanding the ‘as is’ state of our organisations? We can help you understand the value of business process mining tools to measure the “ground truth” behaviours in your business.

In our competitive knowledge-based economy, understanding and insight are vital. Project Science can develop and deliver training packages into your organisation and clients. We have base training packages we can tailor for your organisation, and can develop custom training packages upon request. Some feedback we’ve received for our training: “I thought this event was absolutely outstanding. It was the most thought-provoking APM event I have ever been to, and completely relevant to the times we live in.

In Project Science we use a wide range of tools to deliver compelling insights into data. We often get asked what tools we use, so here’s a list: Programming We use a wide range of programming languages. After you’ve been programming for over 20 years, you see more commonalities than differences (and develop a keen sense for what’s practical). Here are some of the languages we use: C is a venerable language, having been developed in the early 1970s.

Data is at the heart of our work. Working with a wide range of structured and unstructured data sources, we transform data into insight that generates business value. Effective data provides insights into portfolio performance. At a programme and project level, it helps us forecast outcomes, vital to the effective mobilisation of capital. With the right data, risks can be managed and opportunities seized. Surprises are avoided, and long-range predictions become possible.

The burgeoning world of data analytics promises the earth. But how do you go about translating the promises into the hard reality, and thence into benefits? The answer lies in a disciplined approach, through an effective data strategy. We have practical experience designing measurement campaigns, plans and standards that underpin effective data analytics. We help you execute those strategies and roll them out across your organisation. Data quality and data standards are core parts of a measurement framework.

It is a fact of life that projects can go off-track, causing reputational damage and impacting the well-being of the project team. Using our disciplined execution techniques, we evaluate the circumstances that gave rise to failed or underperforming projects. We can advise on how to restore control and can help you recover the project. Get in touch to find out more about our track record recovering and restoring projects to health.

Healthy portfolios are vital to the wellbeing of people and organisations. We can help you optimise your portfolio using statistical techniques to understand variance and lift performance within projects and across your portfolio. Portfolios provide a superb opportunity to learn from experience. We can help you tap into this opportunity, and generate financial returns.

Project Science has many years’ experience delivering complex project and programmes in a variety of sectors. We provide a project delivery capability that integrates with your system engineering and business change teams to deliver complex projects and programmes. We select the optimum delivery methodology based on your requirements, and draw upon: Iterative Waterfall Agile Hybrid We adapt the delivery methodology depending on lifecycle stage, level of risk, and are highly experienced helping your teams move between the models.

We have extensive experience of project controls, including: Product breakdown structure (PBS) development Work breakdown structure development Risk and opportunity management Schedule development Schedule management and tracking Baseline control Change control Reporting We integrate risk and opportunity management tightly into our project controls frameworks. We use a range of tools including: Microsoft Project Primavera P6 Jira We have software development expertise, and where industry tools are not available, can develop bespoke tools.

A PMO (project management office) is vital to the success of many projects. A PMO provides the heart of a project, supplying consistency, support and know-how to enable delivery. We can help you build a highly-capable PMO for your project and organisation.