What is Reference Class Forecasting?

Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) is a conceptually simple, yet powerful technique for predicting project durations and costs. It was developed by leading economists including Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and its development led to a Nobel Prize in Economics.

This technique responds to some simple observations. We tend to predict outcomes based on:

• what we know (which is often limited, despite our experiences), and
• what we hope (thereby exhibiting aspiration or optimism bias).

RCF shares similar aims to other estimating techniques, but it is the focus on ensembles and probabilities that makes it so powerful, and worth having in our estimating and prediction toolbox.

Projects, programmes and portfolios can be tough environments to apply new techniques and ways of thinking. We can help, by acting as a critical friend that coaches for performance. Often the issues are around presentation, perspectives and mindsets: we can help you navigate these circumstances in your projects.

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To find out more about how we can help with coaching, please get in touch.

Businesses take risk; volatility is everywhere. But how do you know whether the risks you are taking on are sensible and commensurate with experience? The answer lies in digital benchmarking.

Digital benchmarking is a process where we can help you assess the performance of your digital and complex technology projects. We have access to a wide range of data on historical performance in software-intense projects, and can take you through a comparison process to assess how your organisation is performing, and to review the statistics so that you can gauge risks (and opportunities) using a data-driven approach.

Process mining (also known as Automated Business Process Discovery) is an exciting technique and will play an increasingly important role in our data-driven future. Why is this?

To deliver complex change we must first understand our organisations and behaviours. Without this insight we cannot know our starting point. Where better to start than by understanding the ‘as is’ state of our organisations?

We can help you understand the value of business process mining tools to measure the “ground truth” behaviours in your business. Armed with this data and insights, we can work with you to determine the improvements you can make to lift your project and business performance.

The burgeoning world of data analytics promises the earth. But how do you go about translating the promises into the hard reality, and thence into benefits? The answer lies in a disciplined approach, through an effective data strategy. We have practical experience designing measurement campaigns, plans and standards that underpin effective data analytics. We help you execute those strategies and roll them out across your organisation.

Data quality and data standards are core parts of a measurement framework. We can help you put this in place, and then work with you to then translate those design specifications into practical systems, taking advantage of automation wherever possible, to collect and aggregate that information to distil high-value insights for your organisation.

It is a fact of life that projects, programmes and portfolios can go off-track, causing reputational damage and impacting the well-being of the project team, as well as our business.

Using our disciplined execution techniques, we evaluate the circumstances that gave rise to failed or underperforming projects. We can advise on how to restore control and can help you recover the project.

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Please get in touch to find out more about our track record recovering and restoring projects to health.

Healthy portfolios are vital to the wellbeing of people and organisations. We can help you optimise your portfolio using statistical techniques to understand variance and lift performance within projects and across your portfolio.

Portfolios provide a superb opportunity to learn from experience. We can help you tap into this opportunity, and generate financial returns.

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Get in touch to explore how we can help you with you build data-driven portfolios.

Project Science has many years’ experience delivering complex project and programmes in a variety of sectors. We provide a project delivery capability that integrates with your system engineering and business change teams to deliver complex projects and programmes.

We select the optimum delivery methodology based on your requirements, and draw upon:

• Iterative
• Waterfall
• Agile
• Hybrid
• R&D

We adapt the delivery methodology depending on lifecycle stage, level of risk, and are highly experienced helping your teams move between the models. There is no single model: we simply apply the best tool for the job!

We have extensive experience of project controls, including:

• Data modelling and architecture
• Product breakdown structure (PBS) development
• Work breakdown structure development
• Risk and opportunity management
• Schedule development
• Schedule management and tracking
• Baseline control
• Change control
• Reporting

We integrate risk and opportunity management tightly into our project controls frameworks, ensuring that risks and opportunities are carefully tracked and mitigated or optimised.

We use a range of tools including:

• Atlassian Jira
• Microsoft Project
• Primavera P6

We have software development expertise, and where industry tools are not available, can develop bespoke tools and system integrations.

A PMO (project management office) is vital to the success of many projects. A PMO provides the heart of a project, supplying consistency, support and know-how to enable delivery.

We can help you build a highly-capable PMO for your project and organisation using a wide range of AI and digital techniques and technologies.

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To find out more about how we can help you build your high-performing PMO please get in touch.